Indian employers expect the hiring pace to remain robust in the January-March time frame of Q1 2016. This is according to recently released findings by Manpower Employment Outlook Survey on 5,065 employers across India.
The data when adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, employers report robust optimistic outlook for 2016 at +42%. For the second consecutive quarter, employer confidence in India is stronger than in any of the other 41 countries and territories participating in the survey.
More than four in 10 employers expect to add to their payrolls in the first three months of the year, and the hiring pace is expected to be vigorous in each of India’s seven industry sectors. “As the Indian economy keeps up its escalating growth trajectory, the job market also looks very positive. Job seekers are optimistic about job opportunities in the country. The Indian market continues to grow, with strong confidence bolstered by high levels of investment. Giving the much needed reforms impetus to the economy, the government announced Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reforms in as many as 15 sectors.”
“Employer hiring intentions remain positive, primarily driven by Transportation and Utilities, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Finance, Insurance and Real estate and Public Administration & Education Sectors,” said A G Rao, Group Managing Director at ManpowerGroup India.
“The e-commerce sector is one of the fastest growing industry segments today and is expected to experience continuing growth and perhaps a significant boom in the coming months. Led by increasing Internet penetration and youngsters’ presence online, India’s e-commerce market has seen huge growth in the past few years,” added Rao.
Job gains are expected in all seven industry sectors during the January-March period. Employers anticipate an increase in staffing levels in all seven industry sectors during Q1 2016.
Transportation & Utilities sector employers report the strongest Net Employment Outlook of +48%, while employers in three sectors report bullish Outlooks of +45% − the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, the Public Administration & Education sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector.
Elsewhere, Services sector employers anticipate a booming labour market, reporting an outlook of +43%, while dynamic outlooks of +41% and +40% are reported by employers in the Mining & Construction sector and the Manufacturing sector, respectively.
When compared with 4Q 2015, hiring plans strengthen in four of the seven industry sectors. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector employers report an increase of 6 percentage points while outlooks are 4 percentage points stronger in both the mining & construction sector and the public administration & education sector. Meanwhile, hiring plans are unchanged in two sectors – the manufacturing sector and the wholesale & retail trade sector – and remain relatively stable in the services sector.
Year-over-year, hiring prospects improve in three of the seven industry sectors. Public Administration & Education sector employers report the most noteworthy increase of 8 percentage points while Outlooks are 2 percentage points stronger in both the mining & construction sector and the transportation & utilities sector.
However, hiring intentions weaken in three sectors, including the wholesale & retail trade sector and the manufacturing sector, where outlooks decline by 7 and 3 percentage points, respectively.
India’s Regional Trends
Employers anticipate payroll gains in all four regions during Q1 2016, most notably in the North, where the Net Employment Outlook stands at +55%.
Employers in the West also report bullish hiring prospects with an outlook of +42% while bright hiring intentions are reported in both the South and the East, where outlook stands at +37% and +36%, respectively.
Year-over-year, outlooks improve in two regions – increasing by 11 and 4 percentage points in the North and the East, respectively. Meanwhile, employers in the South report a decline of 9 percentage points and the Outlook for the West is 2 percentage points weaker.
Quarter-over-quarter, employers report stronger hiring plans in both the North and the West, with increases of 10 and 2 percentage points, respectively. However, the Outlook for the East declines by 6 percentage points. Employers in the South report relatively stable hiring prospects.
On interviewing over 58,000 employers across 42 countries and territories to forecast labour market activity* in Quarter 1 2016, the first-quarter research from ManpowerGroup, employers in 39 of 42 countries and territories intend to add to their payrolls by varying degrees at the start of 2016.
However, the survey reveals few trends that signal labour market momentum is building in one direction or another. Opportunities for job seekers are expected to remain similar to those available in the final three months of 2015, and results for the January-March time frame indicate that a small majority of employers are content to either retain current staff or grow payrolls at modest levels while they await more definitive signs in the marketplace.
Employers are encountering some headwinds. For instance, China’s slowdown is evidently impacting labour market activity beyond its Asia Pacific neighbours.
Depressed demand for raw materials is pushing mining and extraction sector forecasts down across the globe, including in Colombia, Peru and South Africa where sector forecasts are the least optimistic yet reported.
The recent Talent Shortage Survey reports that employers continue to be frustrated by their inability to source specific talents—including IT, engineering and many skilled trades.
Overall, forecasts are mixed in comparison to the Q4 2015 and Q1 2015 surveys; hiring plans improve in 23 of 42 countries and territories when compared quarter-over-quarter, decline in 13, and are unchanged in six. Outlooks strengthen in 19 countries and territories year-over-year, weakens in 18, and is unchanged in five. First-quarter hiring confidence is strongest in India, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and the United States. The weakest—and only negative—forecasts are reported in Brazil, Finland and France.
Workforce gains are forecast in 22 of 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region. Hiring plans improve in 14 countries quarter-over-quarter and weaken in only seven. In a year-over-year comparison, Outlooks improve in 12 countries and decline in eight.
Once again, Turkish job seekers will likely benefit from the strongest employer hiring plans in the EMEA region. Additionally, employers in Slovakia report their most optimistic hiring plans since their survey was launched in Quarter 4 2011, while employers in Italy report their first positive hiring expectations since Quarter 1 2011. Employers in Finland and France report the upcoming quarter’s weakest EMEA forecasts.
Image credit: freedigitalphotos.net