A widely-watched private survey shows job ads rising for the ninth straight month, but probably not by enough to stop unemployment edging up.
The ANZ job advertisements series recorded a 0.9 per cent rise in ads during February, seasonally adjusted, leaving the number of positions advertised more than 10 per cent higher than a year ago.
The more stable trend figures, which smooth out volatility, have been rising for 16 consecutive months.
However, ANZ’s chief economist Warren Hogan said that the number of positions being created probably would not make up for the combination of those being lost and population growth.
“Growth in new labour demand appears to be occurring in tandem with job losses in certain sectors such as manufacturing and mining,” he noted in the report.
“As such, aggregate employment outcomes continue to fall short of population growth, with the unemployment rate edging up.
“We expect this process to continue through much of this year, in line with sub-trend economic growth outcomes.”
Australia saw such an outcome last week, with economic growth coming in at just 0.5 per cent for the quarter and 2.5 per cent over the past year, noticeably below the 3-3.25 per cent that is widely considered as average.
Mr Hogan said that the positive trend in job ads also appears to be weakening, and that may trigger a further two rate cuts by the Reserve Bank.
“We will be watching consumer confidence data in the next few days, as well as the official employment figures on Thursday, to determine the likelihood that the RBA will cut again next month as we expect,” he argued.
“There is also some possibility that a third cut will become appropriate later in the year, should confidence and indicators of non-mining investment and household consumption fail to turn up sufficiently.”
news source & image credits: abc.net.au
